Regional ABI data are used in ONS' estimates of regional gross value added (GVA). Data for Sectors M and N are not used directly, but the compensating errors on the other sectors have an effect on the outputs for regional accounts.
Our best assessment of the impact of these second order effects is that they may change the total GVA estimates for any region by up to around 1%, the effect being bigger in those regions with a larger reliance on manufacturing industries. The impact on total GVA for Northern Ireland may be up to 2 per cent due to the particular industry mix in Northern Ireland. The effect on sub-components of GVA, such as manufacturing GVA, will, of course, be more pronounced than the effect on total regional GVA.
ONS published estimates for GVA at regional (NUTS1) level for the period 1989 - 1999 on 21 November, and plans to publish NUTS1 level estimates for 2000 - 2001 on 17 December, in particular to meet a requirement to supply data to Eurostat. In the 21 November release, we also announced plans to publish estimates at sub-regional NUTS2 and NUTS3 levels early in 2003.
As the impact of these second order effects is within the degree of revision usually experienced when the accounts are compiled each year, and given the compelling requirement to supply Eurostat with our best possible estimates by the end of this year, the release of 2000 and 2001 estimates on 17 December will go ahead as planned. However, the release will indicate that these figures should be treated as provisional, as they are more likely to be revised than usual, and we will not publish an industry breakdown.
In order to incorporate corrected ABI data as early as possible, together with other new data becoming available in December and January, the early 2003 publication of NUTS2 and NUTS3 level estimates will include the publication of a revised series of NUTS1 level estimates. A further announcement about this release will be made in due course through National Statistics Updates.
For more information about the ABI estimates, please contact Andrew Walton on +44 (0)1633 812945. For more information about the regional accounts estimates, please contact David Vincent on +44 (0)20 7533 5809.
Guide to the Regional Accounts
