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| Contributor | Abhaya Indrayan, University College of Medical Sciences, Delhi |
| Title of paper | Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Official Assessments |
| Abstract | Background: As in any empirical science, uncertainties are very prominent in official assessments. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties require different management but they are rarely distinguished in official literature. Objective: To increase awareness to separately identify aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in official assessments and to manage them accordingly. Methods: Aleatory uncertainties arise from possible variation and random errors in the values of the parameters and their estimates. They can be reduced by using reliable tools and quality control measures. Aleatory uncertainties are delineated by uncertainty analysis, and managed through modelling, decision trees and statistical analysis. Epistemic uncertainties are fundamental in nature that arise from lack of knowledge about the behaviour of a phenomenon. They may require review of literature, expert consultation, close examination of data and further research, and may still remain unresolved. Tools such as scoring system, expert system and fish-bone diagram can help in reducing epistemic uncertainties. Once occur, they can only be delineated by sensitivity analysis, but otherwise can be rarely managed in terms of their impact on decisions. Conclusion: Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties should be distinguished, separately identified, and differentially managed. |
| Full document | Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Official Assessments |
This page last revised: Wednesday, 10 July 2002
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