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| Contributor | S. Al-Awadhi, Faculty of Science, Kuwait University |
| Title of paper | Stochastic modeling of global solar radiation measured in Kuwait |
| Abstract | Can we relay on solar energy in quantifying a source of energy and to what extent we can use solar energy as an alternative energy in Kuwait. What is the yearly trend of the solar radiation. To answer these questions we need to predict energy. Two stochastic models that capture the main features of daily exposure of global radiation in Kuwait are proposed. The development of these models is based on removing the annual periodicity and seasonal variation of solar radiation. The series is divided into two regimes: one corresponds to clear days where the value of the global radiation would be normal and the other to non-clear days where the value of global radiation would be very low. Then the trend component is expressed as a Fourier series taking into account such apparent breaks in the series. A bilinear time series is used to model the stochastic component of daily global radiation in Kuwait. The method proposed considers first fitting an AR model to the data and then seeing whether a further reduction in the mean sum of squares can be achieved by introducing extra bilinear terms. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is used to select the best model. |
| Full document | Stochastic modeling of global solar radiation measured in Kuwait |
This page last revised: Friday, 7 June 2002
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