Births & Deaths
Births to exceed deaths up to 2031
Births and deaths, UK
Births
In 2003 there were 695,500 births in the UK. Over the last century there have been large fluctuations in the number of births. Sharp peaks occurred after both world wars. The largest annual number of births during the twentieth century occurred in 1920, when there were 1,126,800 births.
Throughout the 1960s there was a more sustained 'baby boom', with births rising to a peak of 1,014,700 in 1964. This was followed by a rapid decline in the numbers of births in the 1970s, reaching a low of 657,000 in 1977.
The larger numbers of women produced by the 1960s 'baby boom' meant there was an increase in the number of births during the 1980s and 1990s. These larger generations are in turn projected to produce a slight rise in the number of births during the 2010s.
Deaths
In 2003 there were 612,000 deaths in the UK. For the first half of the twentieth century there was no strong trend in the number of deaths. There was noticeable annual fluctuation, including at the time of both wars. The peak number of deaths in the twentieth century (715,200 deaths) occurred in 1918 at the time of an influenza pandemic.
From the 1950s the number of deaths rose slightly and annual fluctuations were smaller. Deaths reached a peak of 675,600 in 1979 and then started to fall. This decline is projected to gradually halt in the early 2010s.
Deaths are then expected to start a sustained increase again to a projection of 800,000 deaths a year by 2051. The increase in the number of deaths will be added to in the 2040s and 2050s by the baby boom generation of the 1960s reaching old age.
Natural change, UK
The relationship between births, deaths and population
In every year since 1901, with the exception of 1976, there have been more births than deaths. This natural change is one of the two main components that determine population size and change, the other being migration.
The projected trends in births and deaths mean that the UK population is expected to experience natural decline from the 2030s onwards. However, because of projected migration the size of the UK population is not expected to decrease until the second half of this century.
Sources: Birth and death registration data: Office for National Statistics, General Register Office for Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency, Central Statistics Office Ireland UK 2002-based national population projections, 2004 to 2051: Government Actuary’s Department
The following articles can be found by following the 'Population Trends' and 'Health Statistics Quarterly' links on the right-hand side of the page. Please download the appropriate volume for each article: PT115: Births in 2002, England & Wales PT115: 2002-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries HSQ21: Annual update: 2002 Mortality Statistics, cause (England & Wales) HSQ18: Twentieth century Mortality trends in England & Wales
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