Winter Mortality
Excess winter deaths increase in 2008/09
Excess winter mortality, England and Wales, 1999/2000 to 2008/2009
In the winter period of December to March 2008/09 there were an estimated 36,700 more deaths in England and Wales, compared with the average for the non-winter period (see definition below). This was an increase of 49 per cent compared with the number in the previous winter 2007/08. This is the highest number of excess winter deaths since the winter of 1999/2000, when excess winter mortality was nearly a third higher than in 2008/09.
The elderly population experiences the greatest increase in deaths each winter. In the winter of 2008/09 there were 29,400 more deaths among those aged 75 and over, compared with levels in the non-winter period. In contrast, there were 7,300 excess winter deaths among those under the age of 75.
The number of extra deaths occurring in winter varies depending on temperature, the level of disease in the population, and other factors. Increases in deaths from respiratory and circulatory diseases are responsible for most of the excess winter mortality. Influenza is often implicated in winter deaths as it can cause complications such as bronchitis and pneumonia, especially in the elderly, although relatively few deaths are attributed to influenza itself. According to the Health Protection Agency (HPA) influenza activity started early and reached moderate levels during the winter of 2008/09, but did not reach the epidemic levels seen in the winter of 1999/2000.
Notes: Excess winter mortality is calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year).
Figures for the winter of 2008/09 are provisional, and have been rounded to the nearest 100.
Figures for the winters of 1999/2000 to 2007/08 are final and are rounded to the nearest 10.
An analysis of the factors related to excess winter mortality is in Curwen M (1997) Excess winter mortality in England and Wales with special reference to the effects of temperature and influenza. In Charlton J and Murphy M (eds) The Health of Adult Britain 1841-1994, Volume 1, TSO: London, 205-216.
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Excess Winter Mortality