Excess winter mortality, England and Wales, 1998/99 to 2007/08
In the winter period of December to March 2007/08 there were an estimated 25,300 more deaths in England and Wales when compared to the average for the non-winter period (see definition below). This was a rise of 7 per cent compared to the number in the previous winter 2006/07. The highest excess winter deaths were in the winters of 1998/99 and 1999/2000, where excess winter mortality was around double that seen for 2007/08.
The number of extra deaths occurring in winter varies depending on temperature and the level of disease in the population, as well as other factors. The elderly experience the greatest increase in deaths each winter. In the winter of 2007/08 there were 19,400 more deaths among those aged 75 and over, compared to levels in the non-winter period. In contrast, there were 5,900 more deaths among those under the age of 75.
Respiratory and circulatory diseases are responsible for most of the increase in deaths seen during the winter months. Influenza is often implicated in winter mortality as it can lead to bronchitis and pneumonia, especially in the elderly, although relatively few deaths are attributed to influenza itself. However, rates of influenza activity across the winter of 2007/08 were close to or below baseline levels. This contrasts to 1998/99 and 1999/2000 where there was epidemic flu activity according to the Health Protection Agency (HPA).
Notes: Excess winter mortality is calculated as winter deaths (deaths occurring in December to March) minus the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year).
Figures for the winter of 2007/08 are provisional, and have been rounded to the nearest 100.
Figures for the winters of 1996/97 to 2006/07 are final and are rounded to the nearest 100.
An analysis of the factors related to excess winter mortality is in Curwen M (1997) Excess winter mortality in England and Wales with special reference to the effects of temperature and influenza. In Charlton J and Murphy M (eds) The Health of Adult Britain 1841-1994, Volume 1, TSO: London, 205-216.
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Excess Winter Mortality