Population aged 100 years and over, England and Wales, 1911 to 2008
From the 1950’s onwards the number of centenarians (people aged 100 years or more) in England and Wales has increased at a faster rate than any other age group.
The chart shows the estimated number of centenarians for England and Wales for the period 1911 to 2008. Over this period it is estimated that the number of centenarians has increased 95-fold from only 100 in 1911 to 9,600 in 2008.
This increase however, has not been constant across the period. Growth was slowest between 1911 and 1946; over this thirty-five year period the number of centenarians increased by less than 100. In comparison, the centenarian population grew by 2,000 over the thirty-five years from 1946 to 1981. Between 1981 and 2008, the number grew from 2,200 to 9,600, an increase of 7,400 centenarians over this final 27 year period.
The major contributor to the rising number of centenarians is increased survival between the age of 80 and 100 due to improved medical treatment, housing and living standards, and nutrition.
Since 1911 female centenarians have always outnumbered male centenarians due to the higher life expectancies for women. In 2008 there were approximately seven female centenarians for every male centenarian. In contrast, there were about three women for every centenarian man in 1911. However the ratio of male to female centenarians has fluctuated over time and it has started to fall in recent years due to recent improvements in male mortality.
Future numbers of centenarians will depend on both the numbers of people at younger age groups in the population today and their future survival. Current population projections suggest the number of centenarians in England and Wales will reach almost 64,200 by mid-2033. This is nearly a seven fold increase from the 2008 figure, and an annual average increase of 8 per cent a year.
Sources: Population Estimates of the Very Elderly (including centenarians) and 2006-based National Population Projections, Office for National Statistics.
Notes: The methodology used for calculating the estimates is explained in ‘Thatcher, R 1999, The demography of centenarians in England and Wales. Population Trends 96.’
Data shown in the chart and text prior to 2002 are 1st January estimates while data from 2002 are mid-year estimates. This difference in reference date does not affect the overall trends.
Annual average change has been calculated on an exponential basis.
The latest national population projections are the 2006-based. The 2008-national population projections will be published on 21 October 2009.
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Mid-2002 to Mid-2008 Estimates of the very elderly