Population size as a proportion of the EU population: by country, 2004
The population of the 25 countries of the European Union (EU25) was 466.9 million at the beginning of 2004. The UK (59.7 million) was the third largest country in the EU25 in terms of its population size. The two countries with larger populations were Germany (82.5 million) and France (59.9 million). Together, the six countries with the largest populations accounted for nearly three quarters of the total population of the EU25.
The population of the UK increased by 1.5 per cent between 2000 and 2004. This was similar to the rate of increase seen in the EU25 as a whole (1.6 per cent). The four fastest growing countries of the EU25 in this period were Ireland (6.6 per cent), Spain (6.0 per cent), Cyprus (5.8 per cent) and Luxembourg (4.2 per cent).
Net inward migration has played a much bigger role in population change than natural change in recent years, accounting for around 85 per cent of the total growth in the EU25 population between 2000 and 2004. The UK is unusual within Europe in having large migratory flows, both into and out of the country. In 2002, it was one of the four EU25 countries that between them received 71 per cent of the net inflow into the EU25.
In the last 30 years there have been significant socio-demographic changes within Europe. These include a decline in marriages, rising cohabitation and an increase in divorce and subsequent repartnering. The pattern in the UK has been broadly in line with that seen in the rest of Europe.
The UK population is ageing but not as fast as the populations of many other EU25 countries. In 2004 there were four countries where the proportion of the population aged 65 and over exceeded the proportion aged under 16 – Italy, Greece, Germany and Spain. In the UK it is projected that this will not happen until the year 2014.
Population ageing is driven by both low fertility and decreasing mortality rates. Fertility rates have declined across Europe in the last 30 years with the lowest fertility rates in southern, central and eastern European countries.
In 2003 England and Wales had an average age at first birth of 26.9 years. Across the EU25, the average age at first birth ranged between 24.5 years in Lithuania and 29.2 years in Spain. In the EU25, the average age of new mothers has risen over the last three decades by around three years while at the same time there has been an increase in the rate of childlessness.
The UK, Ireland and the Netherlands stand out as European countries in which levels of childlessness have substantially increased. Childlessness in the UK has risen from around one in ten women born in the mid-1940s to around one in five women born in the late 1950s.
Sources: Eurostat 2004-based UK population projections, Government Actuary’s Department
Notes: UK population estimates here refer to 1 January. These are consistent with but not the same as the ONS mid-year estimates, which refer to 30 June.
Natural change refers to the difference in the number of births and number of deaths in a given period.
The UK, Spain, Italy and Germany received 71 per cent of net inflows into the EU in 2002.
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