Natural increase and net migration as components of population change, 1991-2004, UK
In 2004 the UK was home to 59.8 million people. This represents a 19 per cent increase from its population of 50.3 million in 1951, and a 3.3 per cent increase over the last decade (1994 to 2004).
Until the mid-1990s, population growth in the UK was mainly due to natural increase – the number of births exceeding the number of deaths each year. Since the late 1990s, there has still been natural increase but net international migration into the UK from abroad has become an increasingly important driver of population growth. Between 2001 and 2004, almost two thirds of the increase in population in England and the UK was due to net in-migration.
The UK has experienced higher levels of both inward and outward migration in recent years than previously. Annual migration into the UK has increased between mid-1994 and mid-2004. Annual out-migration also increased over the same period but to a lesser extent. As a result, the contribution of net international in-migration to population growth has increased over the decade.
In 2004, 84 per cent of the UK population were living in England, 9 per cent in Scotland, 5 per cent in Wales and 3 per cent in Northern Ireland. Between mid-1994 and mid-2004, population growth was greatest in Northern Ireland (4.1 per cent). England’s population grew by 3.9 per cent and the population of Wales grew by 2.3 per cent over the decade. In contrast, Scotland’s population decreased by 0.5 per cent.
Northern Ireland’s population grew faster than the rest of the UK because the number of births far outweighed the number of deaths each year. In contrast, both Wales and Scotland saw fewer births than deaths towards the end of the 1990s, a factor that contributes to population decrease.
Population estimates and projections, 1994 to 2031, UK
The United Kingdom population is projected to continue to grow, increasing gradually to reach 67.0 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will continue to rise until 2074, the end of the projection period.
Projected trends differ for the four countries of the United Kingdom. The populations of England and Wales are projected to be still rising in 40 years' time, with Wales having a lower rate of growth than England. Scotland’s population, which saw some decline in the 1990s, is projected to increase gradually, peaking around 2019, before resuming its decrease. The population of Northern Ireland is projected to peak around 2030 and then start to fall.
Sources: Population estimates: Mid-2004 Population Estimates, Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Components of population change and mid-1994 population estimates: Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Population projections: Government Actuary’s Department
Notes: Natural increase refers to the excess of births over deaths in that year. Net migration and other changes refers mainly to international migration. Other small changes include changes in the numbers of armed forces.
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