The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the UK reached 1.96 children per woman in 2008, the highest level since 1973. The UK TFR has increased each year since 2001, when it hit a record low of 1.63.
Fertility has been increasing in all four UK countries since 2002. Northern Ireland continued to have the highest TFR in 2008 (2.11 children per woman), while Scotland’s fertility remained lower than the UK average (at 1.80 children per woman). The TFRs in England (1.97) and Wales (1.96) were close to the UK average.
Age pattern of fertility
The last three decades have seen strong upward trends in the fertility of UK women in their thirties and forties. Women aged 30-34 have experienced the greatest absolute increase in fertility over this period, with rates rising from 64.1 births per 1,000 women in 1978 to 113.1 in 2008. As a consequence, women aged 30-34 have had the highest fertility of any age group since 2004.
Women in their twenties have experienced small increases in fertility over the past six years. This represents a reversal of the trend of falling fertility at these younger ages during the 1980s and 1990s.
These changes in age patterns of fertility have led to a steady increase in the average (mean) age for giving birth. In 2008, the mean age for giving birth in the UK was 29.3 years, while in 1978 the mean age was almost three years lower (26.7 years).
Family size in England and Wales
Two children remains the most common family size in England and Wales. Nearly four in 10 women reaching age 45 in 2008 (that is, those born around 1963) had a completed family size of two children.
Childlessness has been on the increase in recent years. One in five women born in 1963 remained childless, compared with one in eight women born around 1933.
The proportion of women having three or more children has fallen, from four in 10 women born in 1933 to three in 10 women born in 1963.
Sources: Office for National Statistics; General Register Office for Scotland; Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Notes: The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of live children a group of women would have if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of the year in question throughout their childbearing lifespan. The TFR and the mean age at birth are standardised measures that eliminate the impact of changes in the age distribution of the population and so enable analysis of time trends.
2008 TFRs for the UK and constituent countries are based on 2008 mid-year population estimates published in 2009. Fertility rates for Northern Ireland and the UK are provisional until NISRA publishes final births data for Northern Ireland.
Family size data are based on true birth order estimates for England and Wales, since UK data are not available on a consistent basis. True birth order is the number assigned to a birth based on the mother’s previous number of live births. The partial information on previous births collected at birth registration is supplemented with data from the General Household Survey to estimate true birth order.
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Birth Statistics data