National Statistics Online - Articles - Dealing with potential bias in early estimates of GDP
Articles Database
Dealing with potential bias in early estimates of GDP
Considers why this has occurred and the ONS response to reducing the potential for such bias in future
Author: Robin Youll
Economic & Labour Market Review, vol 2, no 7, pp 75. ISSN: 1751-8334
Historically, Office for National Statistics (ONS) early estimates of the growth of the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) have tended to be revised up on average. This article considers why this has occurred and ONS’s response to reducing the potential for such bias in future. It concludes that there is insufficient evidence for ONS to make an explicit aggregate level adjustment to these early estimates to anticipate potential future bias, and that there are many more fundamental reasons why it should not make such an adjustment. Instead, ONS should continue to research the reasons for any bias, and seek to reduce or remove it altogether.
Download
