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Impact of the LFS switch from seasonal to calendar quarters
An overview of the switch of the LFS to calendar quarters and the potential effects of this change on users.
Author: Vassilis Madouros
Labour Market Trends, vol 114, no 6, pp 191-202. ISSN: 1361-4819
In accordance with EU regulation, the structure of the Labour Force Survey (LFS) will switch from a seasonal quarter basis to a calendar quarter basis in 2006. The first set of LFS results on a calendar quarter basis will refer to Quarter 1 of 2006 and be published in May 2006, while the last set of LFS results on a seasonal quarter basis will refer to the winter quarter of 2005 and be published in April 2006.
Not all LFS data will be affected by this change. For example, the series published monthly in the Labour Market Statistics First Release (LMSRS) on a three-month rolling average basis will remain unaffected. But there will be a significant effect on LFS microdata and LFS longitudinal datasets.
ONS will be producing a limited backseries of LFS microdata on a calendar quarter basis to mitigate the effects of this change on users. However, analysts who wish to use microdata to make comparisons of labour market indicators over a long period of time may need to compare seasonal quarter estimates of an indicator with the corresponding calendar quarter estimates. In doing so, analysts need to be aware that this comparison may be distorted by seasonal factors, as the two estimates refer to different quarters in a year.
Looking at the data published on a three-month rolling average basis in the LMSFR, it is possible to deduce that this distortion due to seasonal factors is expected to be larger for estimates of economic activity of young people and prime age women, the number of actual hours worked, part-time employment and temporary employment.
This article was originally published as a non-journal article on 17 May 2006.
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