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How the preliminary estimate of GDP is produced
Describes the timing, data content, adjustments, balancing and all the parts of the process leading to the earliest publication of such an estimate in the world.
This article explains how the preliminary quarterly estimate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is produced and describes the developments in statistics of output which made it practicable. This estimate of the change in GDP is based mainly on output information and is produced three and a half weeks after the end of the quarter to which it relates: the earliest regular production of such an estimate in the world.
The preliminary estimate is mainly derived from the output or production measure of GDP, commonly known as GDP(O). The output methodology is essentially the same for the preliminary and subsequent estimates. The subsequent estimates for each quarter are improved, not only by incorporating additional output data, but also by a greater emphasis on National Accounts’ coherence and balancing through the income and expenditure measures of GDP.
The article considers the influence of these wider relationships on the preliminary output-based estimates.
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