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Revisions to quarterly GDP growth
This article focuses on the results of the latest Revisions Analysis of the growth rates of GDP at constant 1995 prices and it is one of a series of articles published in Economic Trends that aim to regularly monitor the reliability of the estimates.
This article examines the latest results of GDP Revisions Analysis, updating the previous article published in July 2002.
This Revisions Analysis investigates the change from the first estimate to the latest official estimate of the quarterly growth in GDP at constant prices. The present article examines the bias and dispersion of the quarterly revisions at the different stages of the National Accounts process for the period of 1993 Q1 to 1999 Q4. The average revisions show a positive bias of 0.189 percentage points between the first and the latest estimates of GDP growth. The results of the Revisions Analysis by stages provide evidence that two stages were significantly different from zero: Blue Book One and Post Blue Book Two.
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