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The effect of annual chain-linking on components of the Expenditure measure of GDP
The introduction of more up-to-date weights for calculating economic growth is likely to revise down estimates of growth for household expenditure and for exports and imports of goods.
Analysis of the effects of annual chain-linking on the output measure of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been described in earlier articles (see below). This article shows the effects of annual chain-linking on annual growth estimates for household final consumption expenditure (HHFCE), exports and imports of goods, using input data consistent with those published in Blue Book 2002. The analysis for HHFCE shows an effect of between +0.1% (1995) and –0.6% (2001) on percentage annual growth estimates. The effect on annual growth estimates of exports of goods is between +0.3% (1995) and –0.4% (1999, 2000). The effect on imports of goods is between -1.8% (2000) and +1.2% (2001) on percentage annual growth estimates. The combined effect of annual chain-linking these components on the overall expenditure measure of GDP shows a significant depression in 2001 of –0.7%.
Published in web format: 15 October 2002 at 9:30 am
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